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In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are supposedly cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy.〔The term ''long wave'' originated from a poor early translation of ''long cycle'' from Russian to German. Freeman, Chris; Louçã, Francisco (2001) pp 70〕 It is claimed that the period of the wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals between high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth.〔See, e.g. 〕 ==History of concept== The Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book ''The Major Economic Cycles'' (1925) alongside other works written in the same decade.〔Vincent Barnett, (Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev ), ''Encyclopedia of Russian History'', 2004, at Encyclopedia.com.〕〔Erik Buyst, (Kondratiev, Nikolai (1892–1938) ), ''Encyclopedia of Modern Europe: Europe Since 1914: Encyclopedia of the Age of War and Reconstruction'', Gale Publishing, January 1, 2006.〕 Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, had previously argued for the existence of 50- to 60-year cycles in 1913. In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming the cycles "Kondratieff waves" in his honor. Since the inception of the theory, various studies have expanded the range of possible cycles, finding longer or shorter cycles in the data. The Marxist scholar Ernest Mandel revived interest in long-wave theory with his 1964 essay predicting the end of the long boom after five years and in his Alfred Marshall lectures in 1979. However, in Mandel's theory, there are no long "cycles", only distinct epochs of faster and slower growth spanning 20–25 years. The historian Eric Hobsbawm wrote of the theory: "That good predictions have proved possible on the basis of Kondratiev Long Waves—this is not very common in economics—has convinced many historians and even some economists that there is something in them, even if we don't know what." 〔Hobsbawm (1999), pp. 87f.〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Kondratiev wave」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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